Which Shares will Peak Faster Now ?

[sam111sam]

Did not open a new subject for long, but I think this one will benefit everyone. We all know that the market now will go north, but which share will deliver the best performance.

I invite all of you to recommond which share will peak faster AND WHY
Please take a minute to explain why
1) Technically ...for example "the traded volumes dropped 80% when this share started declining indicating no one wants to sell at this price"
Or
2) Fundamentaly...for example " the comapnay expects great 2Q figure because of the huge apreciation of its investment porfolio in UAE stock market or in DAI "

ALSO PLS INDICATE (if possible)
1) TIME FRAME..Short term (few weeks), Mid term (few months ..year end) , or long term.
2) RISK...would be great if you give your assesment of the risk..For example the Risk in holding DU or Agthia is very diffrent that a Shuaa , UPP or Deyaar

I hope we all support each other with great information for the benefit of everyone

and I take this chance to thank all of you who take the time to read and contribute for the benefit of all members

[sam111sam]

Agthia

Seems to be strong fundamentally
P/E is 8 for the past 12 months,
Recently Recommneded by EFG on the top ME stocks to watch (Thanks Spin)
Very low RISK business.. good track record

Technically
The stock did not get its chance to peak in 2009, only 23% above 2009 low
Volumes dropped to 20% of ave when the price declined in the past 2 days

Good cadidiate to peak suddenly, possibly within few weeks...relatively low risk...So if the market crash, you have better chance regaining your investment with Agthia than others

I will come back later to cover ADCB and ENBD, which I did recommend many times in April and early May. I think both are attractive again now after the recent drop

[thajuddeen]

AGTHIA

The experience of LALA says this stocks peaks last.

LALA calls it a turtle stock.

LALA's observation is right.

Even on the reversal it falls slowly. Most of the stocks have fallen more than 25% from the peak and AGTHIA is still to hit that mark.

On graphical front most of the time it hit a bottom below BOLINGER LOW which has not happened so far.

I recommeded this stock to be added in the portfolio the day before it broke out from around 1.30 to 1.52.

Well, reg, the stock that might peak ahead, I recommend ALDAR, SOROUH and EMAAR (since it's a related stock) because they had completed a peak earlier and almost already hit the bottom (find my explanation in ALDAR vs.. thread).
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

[Prop]

I am not too much into explanations, but as ADX and DFM are oversold, many stocks will peack. Bullish momentum should help the financial, real estate and energy stocks.

[Genesis]

I'm big on Agthia too, even though it isn't super-cheap. Decent visibility on earnings and strong management.

[sam111sam]

[sam111sam]

Shuaa,
May have couple of limit up after the recent agreement with DBG for bond conversion an Dhs 2.91.. Now that Shuaa will get to keep the Dhs1.5B of DBG
As I mesnioned few days back, Shuaa may show a surprise in 2Q (1Q for Shuaa) as they are heavily invested in local and WW stock markets. Utopia mensioned that IAC rules might not allow them to show this in their profits, but I think it depends where did they book these investments originally


DIC
Good liquidity, high book value..good track record.. Although 60% of the business comes from RE and revaluation of land but the company has good strean from rentals and conservative accounting. Their business in Glass and Alminum could be impacted by the slow down in construction, but they are exporting to GCC where the demand is still strong.
2Q results will be a make or break...

[sam111sam]

ADCB
After shooting up 40% in 30 days, it lost 2/3 of these in the past one week. Now that the liquidity problems are almost resolved, ADCB may only be left with the non-performing loans problem which might be easier to handle. P/E is 5.x. ADCB is very well supported by Abu Dhabi Gov Low RISK

ENBD
Also shot up 51% since May 19 but lost half its gains in the recent decline (last 8 sessions). P/E is 4.x. ENBD is included in the current EFG best 10 shares in ME Again, low RISK

[Foreigner]

Re: ADCB, there are reports of $500m of exposure to the Saad Group in Saudi Arabia. If this goes bad NPLs go from 1% to 3% and coverage down to 75%.

[dov222]

from a high of 2.69, its come down to 1.8, its 61.8% 6 month Fibo level
it stayed at 1.8 very briefly, and could go on a crazy run, if the big boys have accumulated enough. not much volume on it currently, but it has a tendency to shoot up very fast, and might one of the first to peak.

[sam111sam]

[sam111sam]

[dov222]

im hopeless with fundamentals sam..
but to be honest, in our markets, i dont really feel it matters.
when the market goes up, everything goes up and vice versa.
gulf navigation had a very bad earnings report in Q1 2009, the price tanked at the time from 75 to 61 if i remember right.. a months or two later when emaar took off, gulf nav rallied to around 1 dirham to my amazement.. anyhow, our friend joe might have a better understanding of aabar.. this is an older post, might make sense to you,rgrds

http://www.dubaisharetalk.com/viewtopic.php?t=9783#24335

[sam111sam]

[adbulls]

[sharewadi]

[sam111sam]

Ok here is the short list so far

Aldar, Sorouh, Emaar (out of these Sorouh is best as of now) However, RE stocks has its own risk

Agthia, GNav
Good fundamentals and low risk. Very much under valued. If Gnav was listed in ADX it could have been much better

Aabar, DIC
Solid investment companies , good liquidity, both have made some investments in stock market at the right time and good RE portfolio. Very much under valued.

ENBD, ADCB
Very strong fundamentals. Very much under valued. But we don't know the extent of their exposure to bad loans. ENBD did very well in 1Q, if they post a good 2Q, then it should fly


Let's hope Emaar news does not screw up the whole market

[bandakok]

I bet everyone is waiting for 9:30 am to take a glance as to how themarket is responding to both Emaar and Gulf Navigation.
By 9:31 we will know if it is a limit up. Who can put their order first and make few bucks in 4 hours or less, i think by 10:10 there will be no Emaar shares for sale.
Sama Dubai has good overseas investment .

[sam111sam]

[sam111sam]

Today's winner is

Agthia, did today 6.3% from yesterday's average and 14% from the last price

Aldar , Sorouh are not far off, 3% from yesterday av, and 14% from the last price

These were the best return out of the short list above

I think we can add Shuaa now to the short list considering the recent agreemnet with DBG and thier heavy investment portfolio locally and internationally

[sam111sam]

Now that Dubai Banking Group has paid Dhs 2.91 per share, and Shuaa will kepp the Dhs 1500m to invest
Can we assume that we will see great results announced soon ?

Shuaa appears to be very much undervalued, the share price was soaring but suddenly an insider started selling 1m shares causing the price and sentiment to dip again

By now the insiders would have an idea on the Q results, why selling now
1) Bad results expected
2) To put pressure on the price so someone alse has a chance to accumulate

Anyone has a view on this ?

[Prop]

Perhaps is the second or a third explanation...

Shuaa press release 07 May 2009:

• First quarter net loss attributable to shareholders of AED197.9 million represents a 65.7 per cent improvement over fourth quarter 2008 net loss of AED577.4 million • Results include AED42.8 million in negative income from associates, AED59.2 million in provisions for one of our associates, and AED68.5 million in book losses due to mark-to-market reductions • Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were negative AED 0.248 for first quarter 2009 versus negative AED 0.724 as of 31 December 2008 • General & administrative expenses reduced by 31 per cent to AED73.1 million during first quarter 2009 (fourth quarter 2008: AED106 million) • Balance sheet remains strong with AED 3.8 billion in total asset, AED 1.8 billion in liabilities and AED 2.0 billion in shareholder’s equity • Liquidity remains strong with over AED 400 million in cash and deposits with banks while total liabilities were reduced by AED341.9 million during the first quarter • Client’s funds under management only slightly lower at AED4.5 billion, down from AED4.7 billion last quarter

[sam111sam]

Thanks Prop

I think we can expect a good 2Q, but Shuaa was always hard to predict

[lala]

sallam and hi to all
its right time to start a new topic which shares will tank faster?
big boys trying to dump there holdings from last 10 days but the problem is they don,t catching stupids anymore.
if few days no more stupids can,t found then race will start of first sell first base(lower locks),just becarefull
and play safe
only stocks can show good performance the one,s who,s profits are resonable and higher then past quarter

play safe
lala
_________________
its my opinion,money is your,s

[sam111sam]

Since June 25th, almost all of the shares discussed above went up, but Aabar is the clear winner 38% up
I will calculate the rest and post a list..
Anyone can help ?