Dubai property reports

[sharewadi]

There's a good collection of articles and opinions around about the Dubai real estate market and where it's heading. I'll keep updating this topic with links to reports and commentaries as they appear. When you've read them all, or before you've read any of them, add your thoughts to one of the discussions in the Dubai property forum .

Rent Caps

Dubai rent cap 2009
Dubai rent cap 2008 - 5%
Dubai rent cap 2007 - 7%
Dubai rent cap 2006 - 15%

Market up

Colliers Dubai property report - HPI up 1% for 2009 Q4

Credit Suisse UAE property 18 December 2008 - outlook is "positive" for Abu Dhabi and "cautious" for Dubai. Despite that, price targets for property stocks were revised down yet again, by significant amounts. Something of an anomaly.
UAE property Credit Suisse - report on (EMAAR), (UPP), (ALDAR), (SOROUH) mostly upbeat but with some concerns (17 Oct 2008), and sharp revision of target prices of property stocks
Dubai property Colliers report - says prices rose 16% in 2008 Q2 (06 Oct 2008)
UAE property report from HSBC - growth still positive but set to slow, increases Aldar and Sorouh shares price targets, decreases Emaar's. 14 July 2008
UAE property supply demand - gap to grow until 2017 at least says Tasweeq Property Marketing - EB 12 May 2008
GCC property Moody's report PR 26 Feb 2008
UAE Construction Real Estate - EFG report 25 Feb 2008
UAE Economy report from HC Securities February 2008 (a brief general report)
Abu Dhabi property TNI report says shortage until 2010 - PR 09 Oct 2007 (not the same market as Dubai but will be of interest to those in Abu Dhabi)
Dubai property EFG report - prices up in 2007 & 2008, down in 2009 - 26 Sep 2007
Dubai property - Omniyat CEO says not in a bubble - AB 11 Sep 2007
MEED Dubai Real Estate Report 2007 - a 3.5% difference between estimated demand and supply is enough to forecast solid growth in Dubai property between now and 2010? 06 Aug 2007
Dubai property bubble - UPP CEO says no bubble GN 10 Jul 2007
Ras Al Khaimah property a popular choice for investors - 10 Jul 2007, Better Homes talking the market up.
Abu Dhabi property HSBC report says property underpriced - 29 Jun 07, HSBC report Aldar - also says shares undervalued.
Middle East property - private equity to invest Dh 4.8 bn - ET 16 Jun 07. Could be seen as encouraging depending on where the money goes.
Dubai property MEED report says boom to continue till 2010 - 03 Jun 07 - says supply of 175,000 units versus demand for 181,000 units in Dubai by 2010.
UAE mortgage market TAMWEEL CEO says up to AED20 bn in 2007 - GN 01 Apr 07
Dubai property Prime Securities report says no excess supply till 2009 - 28 Mar 2007
Dubai & Abu Dhabi property - markets still growing strong? Gulf News comments 10 Mar 2007 - claims of 30% rental returns still possible but where???
Dubai property - Bright Lights, Boom City, 160,000 new houses in 2007 - Daily Telegraph UK 06 Mar 2007 (some inaccuracies though)
TAMWEEL CEO predicts 36,000 units delivered in 2007 - ET 27 Feb 2007 - not said if for the UAE or just Dubai
UAE property companies worth AED 150 bn - IREF Jordan report, 36% of ME population under 15 - 13 Jan 2007
Damac Chief Executive Peter R Riddoch comments on EFG-Hermes report - 20 Dec 2006
Future Brand says Dubai housing market will double by 2015 - KT 07 Dec 2006
No property bubble in Dubai says Trump junior - GN 05 Dec 2006
TAMWEEL CEO says Dubai property demand 50,000 units in 2007 - 04 Dec 2006
TAMWEEL says Dubai mortgage market AED17.6 bn in 2007 - 27 Nov 2006
Dubai property market good - ex-UNB CEO - 06 Nov 2006
Dubai office rent $40-$60 sq ft vs $190 in Hong Kong - Colliers survey - 09 Oct 2006
Worldwide interest in Dubai property continues - Gulf News commentary 22 Sep 2006
Abyaar RE from Kuwait to invest AED 5.1 bn in Dubai - 11 Sep 2006
South Korea's Axon investing AED 2560 m in Dubai - 17 May 2006
Dubai real estate market will continue to be solid investment - GN 28 April 2006

Sitting on the fence

Fitch Dubai property report 09 July 2008 - says supply will catch up to demand in 2009 and any correction could be orderly, or not. Watch out...
Dubai Property - Boom or Bust? GW 01 Aug 2007 - GoWealthy CEO can't make up his mind
Dubai's Economic Growth and Property Bubble - Will It Burst? - Yes and no says the Arab News 25 June 2007
Dubai Property Cycle starting to turn? AME 03 Jun 07 - commentary on sales slowdown and secondary market
TAMWEEL CEO - affordable units may hold value in correction - GN 06 Mar 07
UAE property market heading for a soft landing? KT 27 Jan 2007 (summary of other reports)
Dubai facing property correction like Singapore or Hong Kong? - from 15 Jan 07, AME info comments based on Dec 2006 EFG-Hermes Dubai property report
72,000 new property units in Dubai 2007 - Shuaa/Colliers - GN 22 Jan 2007
Colliers says 170k to 210k new homes in Dubai by 2010 - ET 22 Dec 2006
IMF official says UAE property market due to stabilise - 19 Dec 2006
Deutsche Bank forecasts 92,000 new units in Dubai in 2007 - 09 Dec 2006
Dubai land buyers down 40% from 2005 H1 to 2006 H1 - 06 Jul 2006

Market down

Colliers HPI Dubai - average 41% fall for 2009 Q1 compared to 2008 Q4
Colliers Dubai Abu Dhabi property report and the rest of the GCC - commercial and residential
HSBC Dubai property report says prices fell 23% in 2008Q4 - 21 January 2009
Shuaa property report forecasts a 60% fall from peak prices - 18 January 2009
Colliers HPI Dubai 2008 Q4 - down 8%, 13 January 2009
Colliers Dubai property index for 2008 Q3 - 03 December 2008, slowing growth, maybe falling for Q4
EFG UAE real estate report 30 November 2008 - revised priced targets for property stocks, Dubai real estate down in 2009 but Abu Dhabi up.
Dubai property boom over - discussion topic started 14 November 2008
Dubai property crash - discussion started 11 November 2008
Cityscape Dubai 2008 - lots of interest but few sales? 09 October 2008
Morgan Stanley Dubai property report says a 10% correction possible - 05 August 2008
Princess Resort in Ajman - cancelled 15 June 2008
Al Salam City - Umm Al Quwain, cancelled or suspended March 2008
Palm Springs (DAMAC) - cancelled but resurrected March-April 2008
Dubai property prices down - not until 2009 though (up in 2007 & 2008) - EFG Hermes report - 26 Sep 2007
EMAAR rating of A3 from Moody's, property concerns voiced PR 10 Jul 07
Property crash in Spain a forecast for Dubai? - GN 22 Jun 2007 - list of 8 indicators applied to Spain. Are they applicable in Dubai?
Global property warnings - including Dubai? AME 26 May 2007 - added 28 May 07
Property markets worldwide at a peak? AME 04 Apr 2007
UAE Real Estate short-term correction possible says Moody's? - 03 Apr 2007, brief comment to local press, not a full report.
GoWealthy forecasts 20% property correction by end 2008 - CEO Peter Penhall says 75,000 units by end 2007.
EFG-Hermes AMLAK, TAMWEEL, property report 60,000 new units in 2007 - 12 Jan 2007
EFG-Hermes report on Dubai's property market 2007-2009 - Dec 2006
Nomura report on GCC shares "The Long Haul Back" - 04 Dec 2006 - says 70,000 homes from Nakheel by Summer 2007.
Dubai rents down 5% in 2007, prices down 30% by 2008/9 - GN 06 Nov 2006 - report from Standard Chartered Bank
Mishal Kanoo predicts property crash in Dubai - AME 15 Oct 2006
Dubai property: Scenario in 2007 - Matein Khalid opinion
Distress sale of Dubai homes up - Gulf News commentary 01 Aug 2006
The Global Housing Bubble? from THB blog 29 March 2006

UAE property stocks - Al Mal Capital report 09 March 2008 - if you want to buy UAE property stocks instead of shares, here's some good bedtime reading. Covers (*Not what Al Mal said, my translation of their ratings).

• Al Dar Properties (ALDAR) market perform (hold*)
  
• Deyaar Development (DEYAAR) outperform (buy*)
  
• Emaar Properties (EMAAR) outperform (buy*)
  
• RAK Properties (RAKPROP) underperform (sell*)
  
• Sorouh Real Estate (SOROUH) market perform (hold*)
  
• Union Properties (UPP) outperform (buy*)

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[sharewadi]

Several more report links added to first topic from July 2007 to February 2008. Mostly positive, forecasting continued supply shortages and increasing demand through 2008. Moody's stands out with some negative sentiment rather than an outright forecast, and EFG suggests a possible oversupply in 2009 (so do a few others). There's a new report from EFG this week forecasting continuing increases in property demand and prices this year. I'll update first post again later today.

Since this topic started (and even as far back as 2004 or 5), various organisations have been forecasting property oversupply in Dubai within about 2 years of the date of the forecast. The years 2006, 2007 have rolled on through with continued property supply shortages - mostly due to construction delays. Will 2008 be the same?

This week I saw a figure for population of the UAE estimated at 5.6 million (have forgotten source but will update post I find it again). I forgot date for which that figure applies, for some reason I have 2006 in my head but that doesn't seem right, 2007 seems like a more realistic date.
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[sharewadi]

UAE property report from HSBC - growth still positive but set to slow, increases Aldar and Sorouh shares price targets, decreases Emaar's price target.

Added to property up.
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[sharewadi]

Colliers, Cityscape, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley topics added to first post.
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