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Marketwatch February 2010 DFM ADX
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sam111sam
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Re: Signs of possible reversal

Posted on Mon 01 Feb 2010 17:45 by sam111sam
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sam111sam wrote:
Posted on Thu 28 Jan 2010 17:36
There are some initial signs for a possible reversal...can only be confirmed with ENBD reversing direction


The above mentioned reversal has been confirmed today, although ENBD reversal is not clear yet

UNB bounce well from 2.7 to 3 yesterday and today...DIC seems ready for a break out

Aldar, Aabar, ARTC looks attractive



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adeelakhtar
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Posted on Tue 02 Feb 2010 12:47 by adeelakhtar
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Hi,
Where is taj< havent seen him posting for a while. Sam what do you think market is going for a positive reversal now?

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sam111sam
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Re: Signs of possible reversal

Posted on Tue 02 Feb 2010 14:20 by sam111sam
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sam111sam wrote:
The above mentioned reversal has been confirmed today, although ENBD reversal is not clear yet


Now ENBD reversal is clear...it was expected for few days

let hope DFMI clears the 1680 resistance quickly so that we can hope for 1840. It should be easy to reach this level if Emaar and ENBD post good results next week... The news about good cash dividends can fuel the market..Let's see which Co's will be able to afford cash payments

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Re: Signs of possible reversal

Posted on Tue 02 Feb 2010 17:17 by fadi
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sam

Gulfnav is one of kind company that is paying dividends more than their profits...i doubt any company on DFM will do the same

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Posted on Tue 02 Feb 2010 19:00 by joeoma
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Almost certain that Airarbia will give 10 fil dividend. They have lots of cash on hand. At a share price of .91, that would make the dividend yield look very attractive. Also AA is one of the solid performing companies. AA share price looks very attractive at these levels.

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Re: Signs of possible reversal

Posted on Wed 03 Feb 2010 10:19 by sam111sam
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fadi wrote:
Gulfnav is one of kind company that is paying dividends more than their profits...i doubt any company ...


Fadi,
Last year they had good profit ... I think there is a rule for public lested company that they can't pay cash dividend more than the profit except if they have certain amount of reserve from previous years.

So far the only one who paid more than the profit was DFM Co last year

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Posted on Wed 03 Feb 2010 10:24 by sam111sam
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joeoma wrote:
Almost certain that Airarbia will give 10 fil dividend. They have lots of cash on hand. At a share price ...


If they do, you can expect 20% jump

I personally think they will pay cash again this year, but may be something like 5 Fils. they do need the cash for expansions

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Posted on Wed 03 Feb 2010 11:41 by foaad
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Whys Air Arabia on fire today

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almadina

Posted on Wed 03 Feb 2010 12:39 by dxb
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Why is Almadina at standstill since so many days? Can anyone pls comment?

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Posted on Fri 05 Feb 2010 12:47 by Novice_investor
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I thing i learnt from this forum (fayesloan esp) is that market moves in a certain trend irrespective of news...

i saw that happening in bernarke re-confirmation... mkts ignored it. and later when USd gdp figures came...

i am really looking forward to see the mkts today when labor figures... will the markets rebound on good labor figures ?

Eur-Usd broke 1.38 yesterday and today broke 1.37...

for the heck of giving a prediction... i have a feeling that we might get over this bearishness very soon, maybe another one week... and euro will rebound strongly...a rally of 10-20% is on hands thereon...

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dabbler1
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jobs report

Posted on Fri 05 Feb 2010 17:32 by dabbler1
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From an intermediate and intermediate short term timeframe, the US markets are still in a bull market, within a long-term bear market.
Easy to see that from a daily, and ultrashort term perspective, things are quite bearish, the trend is strongly down.
Now. The jobs report...
If this market want to continue to sell of, it will do that, no matter what the jobs reports will say. If the jobs report is good news, the market may sell because they'll say interest rates are going up sooner than expected.
If the jobs report is bad news, then the market will sell anyway.

Going back to my first statement here, that we are still in a bull market, here is what I believe is happening.
We've had weakness in American stocks for a few weeks now. The correction has not been very deep until yesterday's panic day made it a little worse. But the stock markets around the world (aside from Dubai of course) have been so used to a monotone upwards market the past 10 months that they have forgotten that stock markets can be very scary.

Usually a panic day or two in the markets signifies the end of a cycle. Imagine this. The market has been on a relatively steep uphill climb since March second week last year. Markets must breathe in and out. It has not breathed out properly for a very long time. This decline is the markets exhaling. The end of such cycles can be violent events, like yesterday and possibly the next 2-3 days. If by the end of next week stocks don't recover globally, then this will signify something more serious, like a breach of last year's record lows.

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Re: EU defaults ?

Posted on Sat 06 Feb 2010 00:50 by Novice_investor
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now there is this discussion of portugal, and spain alongwith greece heading towards sovereign defaults... i had been hearing about greece but from where have portugal and spain come... spain is a large economy... infact today in bloomberg they did'nt even spare germany... cds for even german bonds seemed to have gone up... if anyone thinks that germany would default then thats the end of financial world...

what do u think is happening... is there more to it than meets the eye...?

in the midst of all this... USD is gaining strength...

rgds

N

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Posted on Sat 06 Feb 2010 01:19 by dov222
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dabbler1 wrote:
Usually a panic day or two in the markets signifies the end of a cycle


Excellent points dabbler.

Quite a turnaround today in US markets. Probably we just saw the end of this correction. After the rebound, news started popping out about a possible rescue package for Greece to be put together over the weekend...

the media will always look for excuses for why a market is going up/down.

What caused the sell off...was it the problems in Europe, or was that just an excuse for a market that wanted to correct? When the market was in bull mode from March to Dec, all the bad news in the world couldnt slow it down.

The news always follows the charts. ( if markets on monday rally, and it turns out there's no rescue package, they'll find another reason for it )

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For Novice_investor and dov222

Posted on Sat 06 Feb 2010 03:46 by dabbler1
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Understand that the problems of the PIIGS have been known for many years, at least since August 2007, when the financial crisis announced itself.
Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain (PIIGS)
All this is nothing new, really. They have been known for years.
Spain has very significant unemployment for a couple of years now and has had a very huge property bubble burst a long time ago. All this is old news that has been in the backgound the past 3 years.
The American markets have closed positive. Let's see where they close next week.
What caused the sell off?
Not news of the PIIGS, definitely. What caused the sell off is the necessity to relieve buying pressure. There has not been a significant correction in a very long time, over 9 months. That is not normal. If next week, or the next are not positive then this bull market may be over.

PIIGS are one reason the Euro is a possibly doomed currency.
The only real safe haven is a move into the US Dollar, but who knows how long that may last over the long run.
Nothing new about Germany CDS going up.
Last year Germany had a failed bonds auction. I did not see much discussion of that in the news, but guess what, the Euro was flying high anyway. The USA has not had one yet, a failed bonds auction. The USA still calls the shots, financially, because it can find buyers of its bonds.
Buyers include the Fed, incidentally, but that's another story for another night!

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Re: For Novice_investor and dov222

Posted on Sat 06 Feb 2010 09:55 by Novice_investor
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dabbler1 wrote:
"The only real safe haven is a move into the US Dollar"
...


Thanks dabbler for your comments...

Is the dollar the only safe haven ? or it is being projected to be the only safe haven... ?

to be honest i was not aware that Spain is being cited or discussed to being anywhere close to defaulting ... to me this was a sudden and 'new discussion' on potugal, germany cds alongwith spain that just led to euro weakening by over 200 pps in 2 days and gold getting whacked by a 4%... gold went as low as $1063 yesterday from almost 1110 two days back... euro i guess would have cracked 1.36 also if swiss central bank had not intervened...

i was trying to find out how much US treasury note are coming up for auction this month... but could not find a figure...

do you think this is a move to get funds into US... ? make US suddenly sound like a safe haven... !

as you were saying in your post that FED and other US firms bought a lot of T-Notes... is US competing with EU for new funds now... asians funds ? china ?

also faye, ... you said in your post a probability of bull markets getting over... now this may lead to very very uncertain markets... do you think gold would be a better option than dollar then ?

pls if you could give some ideas on what would be good investment options to go for... as a hedge and otherwise...


regards
Novice

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Posted on Sat 06 Feb 2010 13:56 by bandakok
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In the 80's we had the same problem, but then there was no € and no China.
It seem always the $ & Gold were safe.
Today with much of the $ is outside the US, eg CHINA, i can say that China controls the ups and downs of many currencies and economies.
The way out is to have China spend some of this money and send it back in way of investment back to US and Europe.
We know that most of the US and European manufacturers turned to China for cheap labour, giving Tax exemption to these factoreies to bring the business back to their countries and force unemployment in China might force China to spend more of the hard currencies they are holding.

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Some comments

Posted on Sat 06 Feb 2010 19:48 by dabbler1
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Novice_investor wrote:
Is the dollar the only safe haven ? or it is being projected to be the only safe haven... ?

US treasuries have always been the main safe haven along with gold, the so-called traditional safe haven, as per the media.
I don't know about "projected" or what that means.
Novice_investor wrote:
to me this was a sudden and 'new discussion' on potugal, germany cds alongwith spain

As I said earlier, the PIIGS problem is nothing new. It might be "sudden" in terms of appearing in a major way in the newspapers and internet, tv, but whoever is a few steps ahead in terms of research and knowledge of the situation on the ground would not have been surprised by any of this.
One more thing, about Euro. A 200 pip move in a day is still not that bad compared to what daily movements have happened in the past. When there is a news item that is really New and Sudden, you can expect a 500 pip movement easily at least.

Novice_investor wrote:
gold getting whacked by a 4%

Again, gold is one of the few asset classes in a long-term bull market and still in a bull market on intermediate time frame.
Throughout the last 10 years, gold has corrected in this violent way several times. These scary moves happen periodically and will get a lot of people off the bull. Nothing has happened fundamentally to suggest that there might be a shift in any asset class yet. The big picture is the same it has been since 2000 and since August 2007.

Novice_investor wrote:
i was trying to find out how much US treasury note are coming up for auction this month... but could not find a figure...

The US Department of Treasury raises funds, meaning they issue bonds of all kinds (durations) on a regular basis, much more than once a month.
Bloomberg website, Yahoo Finance Reuters coverage of the Treasuries market is substantial but fairly difficult to comprehend if you are new to all of this. The information is out there. You can also check US Treasury's website. There are so many useful websites out there that have data, and nothing to do with someone selling you a story. The problem is it is difficult to interpret the numbers, the data available for free from important sources.
Novice_investor wrote:
do you think this is a move to get funds into US... ? make US suddenly sound like a safe haven... !

I don't think anything of the kind you are thinking. As I said, the US Treasuries market (or you can say in a way the US Dollar) is the main financial safe haven, has always been, and looks to be that way for some more time to come until a real sudden and important event occurs. Such an event should be a true surprise and should catch observers and players off guard.
You need to undertand something fundamental about financial markets. There are risk assets and there are safe havens. Gold is both. The Dollar and the Yen have traditionally been safe haven currencies because of the respective countries' bond markets. Simplifying too much here. Something like stocks, or Euro or Pound or Canadian Dollar, or oil, these are risk assets. People buy them when they feel like taking risk, when they are confident all is well with the markets.

IN every single crisis around the world in the modern age of markets, money has flowed into the US Treasuries market. It is a myth that local money in most countries exit stocks and park the money in a local bank account.
The biggest bank is the US Treasury and you can be almost 100% sure that they will return your money when it is due.
Novice_investor wrote:
as you were saying in your post that FED and other US firms bought a lot of T-Notes... is US competing with EU for new funds now... asians funds ? china ?

I said that the Fed is buying US Treasuries nowadays. That is called quantitative easing when the central bank buys the government's debt. There are repercussions to doing that. But almost everything and everyone buys US Treasuries. It is the deepest market in the world.
The US has no competition when it comes to raising funds. It remains to be seen when the US will have a failed bonds auction the way the UK and Germany and other countries had last year.
Japan is another one that has mystified everyone by being able to raise money no problem.
China rarely raises debt, mainly because it has an immense surplus in FX reserves. In fact as a state it is the largest sovereign buyer of US government debt. That has its own set of problems.
You need to try and understand the sovereign bonds market. I don't think that's possible to do in a short time. People who want to invest based on true knowledge of how money flows in the financial system will have to get a solid grip on the US Treasuries market, because it is the basis of every other market at the moment.
You also need to dump everything you have learned from the media, i.e. the "common knowledge" people think is true. It is all wrong and misleading and inaccurate.
Most professional in financial markets themselves are clueless.

Novice_investor wrote:
do you think gold would be a better option than dollar then ?

Gold has been the better option against most major asset classes over the past 10 years. For most stock markets, gold buys you more on average now than say 10 years ago.
I cannot tell you what to invest in or play in. I do not know what your expectations or goals are. If you are looking to swing trade stocks or commodities or currencies your way to riches, then obviously buying physical gold and holding is not the answer or strategy for you. From a classic investment standpoint gold has overperformed everything except maybe US Treasuries and some agricultural commodities. Will the bull market in gold continue? My answer is Yes, but I am invested in gold and have a general idea of where and when to stop my trade on the downside now. On the upside I will not give my projection or guess because readers may think I am crazy.
No one can see the future, so I am not advising anyone to run to the nearest bullion dealer to buy gold.
Finally, a lot of people come to this forum to try and get levels. What they want is someone to hold their hand and tell them where to buy and sell.
These people do not have to understand fundamentals of a company or the economy, let alone the vast American government bond market and interest rates. I follow these things because it is something I have been involved in and enjoy a lot and use in my long-term investing. Investors who want to understand the system must, must must ignore all the rubbish in the media by journalists and analysts and instead actively construct the truth by looking at the data on offer by Reuters, Bloomberg, etc. The lesser the words and subjective descriptions like Oil went up 2 dollars because of a few Nigerians, the better. As a trader I have no need for all this fundamental knowledge that may or may not make an investor money, but I have a need for a trading system that works for me. also as a trader you have to stop expecting that others can somehow make you money. Trading successfully is a purely individual process involving lots of pain and self discovery that leads to the knowledge that it is not about prediction and forecasting but about ruthless money management.
There are people who are confused about trading and investing. They want to short term trade but at the same time want to capture a nice 200% move in a stock in 3 months. Any market is a great place to lose money, no question about it.

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Re: Some comments

Posted on Sun 07 Feb 2010 08:38 by Novice_investor
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dabbler1 wrote:
I said that the Fed is buying US Treasuries nowadays. That is called quantitative easing when the central bank buys the government's debt. There are repercussions to doing that. But almost everything and everyone buys US Treasuries. It is the deepest market in the world.

Thanks for your commnets dabbler1...

when i said USD is being projected as the strong currency... i did not mean to undermine its strength...

what i meant was that EURO (the only alternative to USD) is being undermined now... (due to the PIIGS problems getting more attention in media)... thats why i guess EURO/Gold has fallen so much... hence more people buying USD... and considering USD to be safer than EURO even "more than before"...

the quantitative easing... or the buying of US treasury by FED... is coming to an end in March 2010... US firms (majority FED) bought over 70% of treasury notes for auction in 2009...the foreign buy was less than 30%...

how will the US govt. ensure that the total treasury notes up for auction in 2010 (which i believe is 25% more than 2009) are purchased without FED participating... ?


regards
Novice

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Euro is a risk asset

Posted on Mon 08 Feb 2010 02:14 by dabbler1
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Novice_investor wrote:
what i meant was that EURO (the only alternative to USD) is being undermined now... (due to the PIIGS problems getting more attention in media)... thats why i guess EURO/Gold has fallen so much... hence more people buying USD... and considering USD to be safer than EURO even "more than before"...

I really do not think the PIIGS problems has anything to do with the short-term movement in Euro / Dollar recently, the currency pair's weakness this year or since December. Either the PIIGS and the European banking problems leads to the Euro's demise or below parity against the Dollar, or they don't. What you must try and observe is not the news, but the price. If Euro is below 1.32 two weeks from now, then I would say we are headed for multiyear lows against the dollar and gold, and yen, or swiss franc, or whatever.
You have to think about the following as well. Stocks around the world and the Euro have correlated positively since 2002, and to a certain extent with crude oil.
That's because those are risk assets. Gold is somewhere between a risk asset and a safehaven as I mentioned earlier. At least that is the way it has been behaving for many years now.
Here is my explanation if you are agonising on why stocks have fallen recently, in the sharpest correction since last March, if I am correct, if not , then since July. We also have seen the Dollar in a steepish or persistent decline from March to December.
The sellers of Dollars and buyers of stocks are tired, that is the explanation. The rally in stocks and decline in Dollar have been too powerful with very little significant correction, so now the markets are adjusting. The next couple of weeks, therefore, should be telling.
The Treasuries market and gold should be telling too and provide more evidence of what is happening.
I know it is a difficult and unconventional and disarming thing to accept, but the stories provided by media to "explain" market movements are "ad hoc" because no wants to say they don't know why the market is doing what it is. No one wants to say , you know what, people are tired of buying stocks. Dollar sellers are tired. Stocks are due a proper correction, the Euro the same. Simple as that, for now. Let the market have its say by two to three weeks from now. If the current trend continues then some of the bigger picture questions will have been answered.
I think the Dubai incident was an amazing display of how the financial media (owned by certain public companies and funds) will latch on to some story and blow it out of proportion. Because the European and UK banks have bigger problems than Dubai defaulting. No question about that.
It is rare for news to affect the markets, and when that happens, like say an act of terrorism or someone important gets killed, or a natural disaster, a panic usually ensues. History is clear about these news driven panics, real news driven panics. You buy into them because you will make money in no time! In the old days, like over 10 years ago when the internet was no big thing still, they would have used Haiti or the Asian tsunami as an excuse to panic, or to explain a panic. Nowadays everyone and his dog has access to an internet terminal so they latch on to problems that big money is already aware of, like the Spanish economy.
Novice_investor wrote:
buying of US treasury by FED... is coming to an end in March 2010... US firms (majority FED) bought over 70% of treasury notes for auction in 2009...the foreign buy was less than 30%...

True it is coming to an end or supposed to. Your figures, are you sure of them? Double check them. Try and get those figures from the real sources, which are available online, and not from secondary or tertiary sources because lots of people who are supposedly experts get a lot of basic figures wrong. You won't believe how many errors you'll find in a typical Reuters or AP financial article sometimes. Even gurus sometimes just throw figures about.

Novice_investor wrote:
how will the US govt. ensure that the total treasury notes up for auction in 2010 (which i believe is 25% more than 2009) are purchased without FED participating... ?

Good questions. I have no idea if Fed buying has been significant enough recently in 2009. I have no idea if Treasury auctions will fail.
What I do know is this. The US Treasury is the world's ultimate bank. If money does not go there, where will it? Not Europe, I know that much. not Swiss or Singapore (how small is that country!)
UK I don't think so.
I also know that people said Japan would be a bankrupt nation because no one would buy its bonds in the 90's and 2000's. That has not happened.

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Re: Euro is a risk asset

Posted on Mon 08 Feb 2010 18:40 by Novice_investor
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dabbler1 wrote:
I also know that people said Japan would be a bankrupt nation because no one would buy its bonds in the 90's and 2000's. That has not happened


Thank you dabbler1 for your comments and time...

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Euro - Down Under ?

Posted on Tue 09 Feb 2010 13:30 by Novice_investor
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Financial Times 09 February 2010:
Traders and hedge funds have bet nearly $8bn (€5.9bn) against the euro, amassing the biggest ever short position in the single currency on fears of a eurozone debt crisis.

Figures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which are often used as a proxy of hedge fund activity, showed investors had increased their positions against the euro to record levels in the week to February 2.

Biggest ever shorting position in the history on EURO...

one "may" expect strong upwards movement for Dollar

And further negative movement on Equity...

thats how it works normally... rest you know better...

regards
Novice

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Re: Signs of possible reversal

Posted on Fri 12 Feb 2010 02:18 by sam111sam
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sam111sam wrote:
Posted on Tue 02 Feb 2010
Now ENBD reversal is clear...it was expected for few days

let's hope DFMI clears the 1680 resistance quickly so that we can hope for 1840. It should be easy to reach this level if Emaar and ENBD post good results next week. The news about good cash dividends can fuel the market......


Results from Emaar and ENBD are good. ENBD suggested 20 Fils cash dividend about 8% return on Wed closing price GREAT. They have been paying 20 Fils for the past 4 yrs Very Happy

I think the road is clear to 1840 now (but don't expect a lot more)

A drop is $ value may happen soon which will help the DOW ...and DFM

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Re: Euro is a risk asset

Posted on Wed 17 Feb 2010 00:50 by Novice_investor
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dabbler1 wrote:
The US Treasury is the world's ultimate bank. If money does not go there, where will it?


Hi...

I just came across the treasury figures for last year as below:

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

China has been selling (not buying) US treasury for last 2-3 months of 2009. Other countries like France (which has been advocating an alternate currency to USD, strongly) ... India (bought Gold... sold 25% of US treasury holdings as per data from june'09 onwards) and Germany have reduced holding toward end of 2009.

i feel that US treasury auctions will face their first setback this year...

whats your conclusion dabbler1... do you see a trend in making ?

And in that case... where will the money go...?

regards
Novice

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tic

Posted on Wed 17 Feb 2010 01:19 by dabbler1
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Yes, that is the tic report.
Novice_investor wrote:
China has been selling (not buying) US treasury for last 2-3 months of 2009.

I don't see the big deal in this.
China in December had more than it did a year earlier or January 2008.

Novice_investor wrote:
i feel that US treasury auctions will face their first setback this year...

Maybe it will, but 2009 was already a bad year (loss) for treasuries in terms of price. Pull up some Treasuries ETFs charts and you will see.
I have absolutely no idea about where long term Treasuries are headed. Notice I said long term Treasuries, not bills (short term). I also won't claim to know that I know how to build a macro picture out of the tic report.
If this is something you have only recently discovered then I will tell you what I do know:
If one can analyse these figures and figure out a high probability way to make money in the markets, then some companies or banks would have been using that way for many years or decades now.
There are some interesting things to note in the tic, I am sure there are, but it can't tell you if the US will fail to raise money. I know that much!
The treasuries story encompasses much bigger things. I think the US is more worried about what institutions (American and international not captured in the tic) will be doing.
Again, international central banks can decide to get out of US sovereign bonds, but a matter of just a slight increase in overall US savings can easily cancel out whatever sovereign banks decide to do.

Again I am no expert on the US sovereign bond market, but what interests me is price and rate of some of its benchmark issues, because they help me construct an overall view of things.
Lots of people are saying the bull market in treasuries is over, but I am sure the TIC has done many things over this bull market. Like indian holdings go up 2 months, go down 5 months, etc. So the tic is a small part of the puzzle of figuring things out. A very small piece.

I mentioned earlier the US Treasury is like a very big bank, I said ultimate bank, for the world but the other American bank is certainly a scarier one, meaning more volatile and riskier. That's the US stock market. Certainly over the long run (over 20 years) this bank has yielded very well for investors.
That might change, as the last ten years trend of down or zero return may continue.
Anyone who wants to short the US gov bonds would do well to at least learn from one of the "surest" trades of the nineties and 2000's: shorting Japanese Gov Bonds.
It did not work.

Just my views

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adeelakhtar
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Posted on Wed 17 Feb 2010 19:09 by adeelakhtar
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Hi,
Which are good companies to invest at the moment. In terms of dividends and bonus shares. And what is the expected date of shares giving bonus and dividends in the accounts.

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