Although if all UAE stocks are down, that could be a follow on from Wall Street taking a dive on Friday. _________________ UAE IPO list | posting guidelines
Emaar's estimated net profit for Q4 was Dh760 million. May be Burj Khalifa didn't deliver the expected profit. _________________ A market analyst is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today!
I think showdown has begun as the volume increased while the price fell sharply. ...
what does that mean thaj? ----why do you think DFM and ADX are taking such a hit and all shares are tanking? are we going to get another dose of some more bad news in the next couple of days? could not see any other logic behind the sudden dip
Could this dip be as result of lower market liquidity? We seen 100m worth of DH holding bonds being repaid and the troubled DW debt, this could be taking the market liguidity off the DFM shares?
what does that mean thaj? ----why do you think DFM and ADX are taking such a hit and all shares are ...
Except until Thursday last week, we had a sideway movement in a downtrend but Thursday's gap down open and resistance on major share was an indication of a fresh leg down. And some strategic selling in stocks like ALDAR was clearly indicating that the downtrend might continue.
The global stock trend just helping to make things easy for bears.
Since I had a prejudice that the global stock reversal will be the cause of the next bottom, I was telling the pace of the fall will increase this week.
By showdown I mean to say the fight is now between the big boys as the volume is high and you should have noticed the high volume traded at limit down which was at one time over 4 million buyer then it came over 2 million seller before in the last minute it became about half a million buyer. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
I have too witnessed 2.92 by drawing a trend line (between two lows) from 18 Feb 2009 to 13 July 2009.
2.92 Was exactly matched at this trend line and price climbed from that.
I entered at 2.93 then.
This bottom price prediction was done on being prompted by Thaj. Just being lucky here. I connected lows of 4th Jan and 24th Jan; which suited my convenience.
On principle, the trendline for downtrend is drawn by joining the highs of the candle or bars. Please correct me if I am wrong.
My ALDAR bottom price prediction went wrong; my signature explains the reason.
Yes, you are right as well as me.
I am talking about a very long uptrend line, which should have been drawn by lowers, and will act as a support line and good upportunities to enter.
So if you draw the line I mentioned and also include today price, then you will notice how this line acted.
I had Emaar yesterday which unfortunately have bought it on last two minutes of thursday, based on wrong calculations.
And sold it yesterday with decent loose, but again entered at 3.93 when I saw confirmation of above trend line.
First of all the gap between 3.14 and 3.25 has to be filled, I guess this will not take long time and ...
OnlineTrader wrote:
We are very close to lower price of above mentioned gap, is this gap will be filled today?
Emaar was able to reach 3.15 (also very short) as a higher price than yesterday high.
I beleive there was enough power by bulls to fill the gap even today, however not enough time!
Tomorrow Emaar will struggle with the gap and also following line.( from lower of 1 Nov 2009 to lower of 24 and 25 December), (in continueation it will exactly match to lower of 21 Jan 2010)
So, if WW market helps, Emaar in an uptrend will fight first with 3.21 and then 3.25 (higher price of the gap).
P.S.Suhail please draw above line and share the picture as it seems much easier for you to do it than me.(I have to use proxy to access that picture sharing website)
Tomorrow Emaar will struggle with the gap and also following line.( from lower of 1 Nov 2009 to lower of 24 and 25 December), (in continueation it will exactly match to lower of 21 Jan 2010)
Thanks Suhail.
Now, Guys do you see how nice is this line?Do you see how many lower points are exactly placed on line?
This line is also lower channel of previous line which was drawn by Suhail, very parallel, and price moved between this bond of channel for three months.
I expect tomorrow Emaar will fight this channel, this will take place around 3.21.
So remember 3.21-3.25-3.30 (3.21 to be crossed to be above this line, 3.25 to be crossed to have the gap between 3.14 to 3.25, and 3.30 as a very solid support price for last week which now turns to be resistance.
Suhail: Please calculate S1-S2-S3 and pivot points by your software and post it here for comparison and further discussion.Thanks.
I will be back within hours.
P.S.Topic owner, Thaj, Where are you?
We need your view as well.
I expect tomorrow Emaar will fight this channel, this will take place around 3.21.
So remember 3.21-3.25-3.30 (3.21 to be crossed to be above this line, 3.25 to be crossed to have the gap between 3.14 to 3.25, and 3.30 as a very solid support price for last week which now turns to be resistance.
I have 3.21 and based on pivot calculation 3.22 is R1.
Lets see how they will react.
No one interested in technical analysis here? except Suhail?
Come on guys, I am sure there are many of you using this method.
Hi Guys,
I was reading carefully from the beginning the Emaar analyis and discussions from october 2009 till Jan 2010.
Read it also because market is a repetitve cycle and I believe that we are heading again to 2.11 in the coming month.
Read carefully what Taj said and analysed about Emaar. It is amazing.
Read it also because market is a repetitve cycle and I believe that we are heading again to 2.11 in the ...
In the recent times you might have noticed EMAAR's hesitation to fall to new lows while most other stocks hitting lower lows.
EMAAR has rebounded more than 10% from 2.98 and may continue to rally to peak above bollinger high which is at 3.50 right now.
Global stocks have done a remarkable rebound and DFMGI participants cann't resist the heat out in the summer and finally decided to jump in.
A resistance below 3.70 could drive prices lower by next month but any rebound from above 2.50 could lead to a bull rally that may more than double its price from the next lower price. From above 2.50 to above 5.50 is a possibility before the end of the year. This is a gut feeling based on the behavioural diagnosis. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
A resistance below 3.70 could drive prices lower by next month but any rebound from above 2.50 could lead to a bull rally that may more than double its price from the next lower price. From above 2.50 to above 5.50 is a possibility before the end of the year. This is a gut feeling based on the behavioural diagnosis.
Hi Thaj
Your feelings mirror mine entirely.
I am not convinced that we have seen the latest low just yet.
I think we can see a re-test of the recent dhs2.98 low and would not be surprised if we see a low of dhs2.50-dhs2.70, before a real rebound to the early dhs4.00 again.
Not entirely confident that what we saw today is for real.
After the recent large volume traded at dhs3.00 and again at dhs3.20 just leaves me with a nervous concern.
Above dhs3.70 this week, would take that away!...if not, here comes dhs2.70!
DOW failed to stay above 10500 and is retreating that means global stocks are under the threat of a reversal.
EMAAR earlier had rebounded from 2.77 to 4.20 and that's a shade lower than previous peak of 4.26 hence the probability of EMAAR falling below 2.77 is high before another cycle that breaks above 4.00.
The last two sessions of trade suggests a potential SELLIF pattern, called Bearish Kicking and looks valid under the circustances as the month is coming to an end.
At any point of time stock has to face heavy resistance between 3.50-3.70. If it's a valid point then stock has to take a bottom around 2.50 and this might happen in the next 2-4 weeks. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
After a day's delay the bearish kicking pattern is confirmed.
Will this force the prices down below 2.98 and 2.77?
Stock should first trade below 3.20 to limit next rebound below 3.30. A rebound from around 3.00 still possible before the final leg down. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
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