EMAAR trend analysis

[khan007]

[thajuddeen]

[khan007]

[fayz]

This thread was an interesting read, thank you all.

For me, I bought a position today at 3.56, i may have not if i read this thread before i bought , for me though and by no means am i anything more then a noob I saw some support at 3.45-3.50 which is my sell sign/support, hoping it goes up from here back to the 3.76+ mark.

[thajuddeen]

[thajuddeen]

Considering a trading buy expecting a sharp rebound?

I have felt resistance at 3.64 and 3.70 on the day of bubble (3.71) which are still to be challenged. And a rebound might hit around 15% so the fall could penetrate below 3.27 to around 3.16.

A rebound from around 3.16 to 3.64 before falling below 3.00 can be expected.

Of course, this view is the outcome of a chat with the beloved 'lala' whom I met last evening for the first time. He opioned EMAAR might reach 3.15 this week. With the global stock standings as at now, it looks possible.

LALA
I was very lucky to share few hours with him last night. It was one of the pleasant meetings I ever had in my life. I was surprised to see him much younger and handsome than the figure I had in my mind for the profound maturity and experience he showed in the forum.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

[thajuddeen]

I want to post some nonsense analysis here.

Based on the pull or push after a bubble in EMAAR, it's noticed a fils bubble could drive the price 10% away. So for the 3.71 bubble the stock could fall to around 3.27.

Previous history of bubbled gap down open (4.55) found an immediate support at (4.02) applying that into a formula reaches you to 4.02/4.55x3.7=3.27. Interestingly 4.02 and 3.27 are the Block points exactly 99 fils away from the corresponding peaks which are 5.01 and 4.26 respectively.

Also it could fill the gap between 3.61 and 3.27.

This is dedicated to WWT, the new member.

I would say some buying is encouraged around 3.27 for a trade.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

[GPIC]

Hi Thaj

Ironically you have predicted 3.27 with your "block theory".

From the low of 10th December 2009 at 2.32, to the recent high of 4.26 on 4th January 2010, i think we may see a strong support at 3.29 (50% retracement ((4.26-2.32)/2)+2.32.

For the last few sessions I have kept a close watch on Emmar’s volume in relation to other liquid stocks, and its one of the few yet to reach the 50% retracement.

The bulk have hovered and passed their respective "50%'s"

My gut feeling is telling me to top up my holdings at 3.29, and i think this will happen tomorrow.

At today’s opening at 3.50, its low at 3.37, and close at 3.39, 3.29 (-2.94%) may be the trigger we are looking for tomorrow.

Keep an eye on the volumes at 3.29!

Cheers GPIC

[indigo]

No support on Technical Charts upto 2.99
_________________
For technical analysis, visit my Blog at Dubai Technical Charts

[thajuddeen]

[abu zaid]

Taj,

Where do you find lala posts? we miss him at this forum.

Regards,

[GPIC]

[Suhail]

Emaar gone below 200SMA.

[GPIC]

[GPIC]

Todays transactions:

dhs3.30 and dhs3.31 accounted for nearly 24% of the trades.

Price - Volume - Daily percentage

3.29 Total 10,000 0.04%
3.30 Total 2,868,854 10.75%
3.31 Total 3,501,213 13.12%
3.32 Total 2,573,718 9.65%
3.33 Total 2,216,337 8.31%
3.34 Total 2,338,949 8.77%
3.35 Total 2,029,813 7.61%
3.36 Total 1,153,532 4.32%
3.37 Total 740,225 2.77%
3.38 Total 1,987,426 7.45%
3.39 Total 554,500 2.08%
3.40 Total 773,775 2.90%
3.41 Total 886,220 3.32%
3.42 Total 1,172,370 4.39%
3.43 Total 788,389 2.96%
3.44 Total 817,477 3.06%
3.45 Total 1,266,021 4.75%
3.46 Total 969,000 3.63%
3.47 Total 30,000 0.11%
Grand Total 26,677,819

Interesting? Will keep a close eye on 3.29 tomorrow to see its support.

GPIC

[Suhail]

[thajuddeen]

[thajuddeen]

Numerical importance in EMAAR.

194 fils is a major common cycle in EMAAR, as I mentioned before.

Before the panic there were two peaks 5.01 and then 4.59, well.

Now predicting supports without panic, we have to apply 194 fils to the above peaks, then we get 3.07 and 2.65. And my expected bottom is still a BLOCK away at 2.16.

Ok, let's better discuss it in a trading trategy to double your investment.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

[OnlineTrader]

[sharewadi]

[thajuddeen]

[yusufbg52]

HC Securities - has increased the TP of Emaar to AED6.6/share from AED6.5/share on higher rental income in todays release.

Expected Net Profit for 2009 - profit of 43 MN ( Earlier it was estimated to be a loss of 282 MN).

Emaar exposure of Amlak is approx. 2.1 BN AED ( Forecast shows no impairment losses on Amlak in the fourth qrtr by Emaar since restructuring process is nt finalized).

Increase in retail occupancy, mainly Dubai Mall’s, from a weighted average of c50% in 2009 estimated to 95% in 2010 estimated.

Major Risk factor - A potential oversupply in Dubai would have a negative implication on future sales, thus forcing Emaar to abandon some projects.

Thanks

[thajuddeen]

I have noticed 48 fils blocks in EMAAR and if it want to do a rebound or at the bottom/peak a 50 fils block.

Now applying this on 5.01 peak, we will have block points as below:
5.01
4.53
4.05
3.57
3.09 3.07
2.61 2.59
2.13 2.11

This is assuming 5.01 is most relevent peak, than 4.59 or 4.26, which is forcing a downtrend. Let's not call a bottom yet but watch price behaviour at 3.07, 2.59 and 2.11 (ofcouse, if only, they reach there).
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

[OnlineTrader]

[Suhail]

Any news or reason for Emaar's limit down today?
_________________
A market analyst is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today!