EMAAR trend analysis
Dubai Share Talk DFM Abu Dhabi ADX UAE stock forum
 
categories newbies general DFM ADSM NDubai unlisted GCC/ME America Europe Asia Pacific Africa  
subforums   latest news UAE brokers | list NDubai IPOs DP World US | list UK   Aus | NZ RSA property
DFM stocks AIRARABIA AMLAK ARMX ARTC DIB DIC DFM DU EMAAR SHUAA TABREED TAMWEEL UPP
ADSM stocks AABAR ADCB ADIB ALDAR DANA ETISALAT FGB NBAD OILC RAKPROP SOROUH TAQA UNB
       
Results & forecasts   2008 FY forecasts for DFM and ADSM stocks2008 FY  2008 Q2 results for DFM and ADX stocks2008 Q3  2008 Q2 results for DFM and ADX stocks2008 Q2  2008 Q1 results for DFM and ADSM stocks2008 Q1  2007 FY annual reports for DFM and ADSM stocks2007 FY  Dubai stock market FAQFAQ  Dubai stock market SearchSearch 
      Printer friendly format, click to print or go to File >> Print Preview from menu bar to preview.Print-friendly Latest  Dubai stock market latest news summaries for Dubai Abu Dhabi UAE stocksnews  Dubai stock market latest posts and newsposts  Calendar for UAE stock related eventsCalendar  About Dubai Share Talk forum, posting rules and guidelinesReadme  ProfileProfile  Private messagesPrivate messages  Dubai stock market RegisterRegister  Dubai stock market Log inLog in 
 Share Wadi
EMAAR trend analysis
Goto page 1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Dubai stock market Forum Index -> EMAAR Properties
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

EMAAR trend analysis

Posted on Tue 10 Nov 2009 17:46 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote


Emaar is threatening to be bullish again.

Today it penetrated into the bubble making body, 4.39 - 4.55. It covered and traded exactly 75% of the body without falling below the body in the last minute pressure. There was a tussle at 4.47 which is the PIVOT of that body and mid-day range (4.43 - 4.51) PIVOT.

Closing sentiment was slightly bearish as the stock closed below PIVOT (4.44) but it still produced a bubble (3.36 -3.39).

Earlier in the day stock hit the HIGH at 4.51, which incidently is 50% retracement of 0.99 when it traded 4.02 from 5.01.

Bulls are very carefull to build the momentum slowly, slow and steady approach. Question

Are the bulls mobilising resouces to burst resistances at 4.65, 4.92 and 5?

How will bears counter the move?

It's the beginning of the end game.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
OnlineTrader
mercenary
mercenary

OnlineTrader avatar

Joined: 10 May 2009
Posts: 601

Posted on Tue 10 Nov 2009 18:26 by OnlineTrader
Reply with quote

some points:

1.Emaar made a doji today which looks very bearish.(- point)
2.over 74% of today trades were above today closing, what do you think? if WW market reverse today, it will not be good.
3.There is another bubble 4.55-4.67, considering today closing It looks far away to be broken again.

Yesterday biggest accumulation was between 4.32-4.33, considering support and resistance levels: S1 (4.37) S2 (4.32) S3 (4.25) , so 4.32 seems safe enough.
However as always have a look at WW markets for any unpredicted crash.

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

On cloudy conditions

Posted on Tue 10 Nov 2009 18:43 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

OnlineTrader wrote:
so 4.32 seems safe enough ...


OT is at 4.32 tomorrow, so you better position at 4.33 to cover the short position. Laughing

Well, 4.33 is the tale end of the 4.55 - 4.33 day, which looks to have some relevence in this week's trade. So 4.33 was in my mind very close to OT.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
OnlineTrader
mercenary
mercenary

OnlineTrader avatar

Joined: 10 May 2009
Posts: 601

Re: On cloudy conditions

Posted on Tue 10 Nov 2009 21:11 by OnlineTrader
Reply with quote

thajuddeen wrote:
Well, 4.33 is the tale end of the 4.55 - 4.33 day, which looks to have some relevence in this week's trade. So 4.33 was in my mind very close to OT.


I must be very happy to have some guessesvery close to Thaj's analysis.
Smile

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

Major reversals

Posted on Wed 11 Nov 2009 05:44 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

EMAAR closed (4.43) below open(4.45) and PIVOT (4.44) with a black spinning top after a bubbled open.

This is a typical EMAAR reversal sign in the past.

In mid June it opened a big gap up at 4.15 and peaked at 4.21 before closing at 4.18 with over 7% gain. The next day it opened big gap down at 4.00 and almost a month long fall upto 2.27 followed.

Also note 49/50 fils is a cycle for EMAAR. It fell to 4.51 from 5.01 which is 50 fils. From 4.51 bottom to 4.02 bottom is 49 fils. Now from 4.02 bottom to yesterday's high (4.51) is 49 fils.

It will be very hard for bulls to try and break 4.51 this week. Evenif they go past that mark, what's behind it is a big bubble (4.55-4.64).

In short DFMGI will find hard to move ahead. The cues aren't very supportive as well, as TASI went down and US closed flat and failed to break above morning high even in the late second half push forward.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

That could just be the beginning of the end

Posted on Wed 11 Nov 2009 10:44 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

EMAAR failed break 4.51 in the moring burst so far.

It could rose only 7 fils from moring low of 4.43 which is not enough to continue to be bullish.

It was a good fight to watch, a spirited attempt. Very Happy
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
OnlineTrader
mercenary
mercenary

OnlineTrader avatar

Joined: 10 May 2009
Posts: 601

Re: That could just be the beginning of the end

Posted on Wed 11 Nov 2009 12:00 by OnlineTrader
Reply with quote

thajuddeen wrote:
It could rose only 7 fils from moring low of 4.43 which is not enough to continue to be bullish.


Finally Emaar passed 4.5 , however I really doubt its sustainability above it.

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

It might help hold prices atleast

Posted on Wed 11 Nov 2009 12:06 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

OnlineTrader wrote:
Finally Emaar passed 4.5 , however I really doubt its sustainability above it.


I also doubt but it might help people offload stock between 4.50 - 4.57 range.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
ITSME
opportunist
opportunist



Joined: 12 Aug 2009
Posts: 42

why other stocks not moving much?

Posted on Wed 11 Nov 2009 14:46 by ITSME
Reply with quote

Hi Thaj,

It has reached 4.57 finally ...what do you think? whre it will take us?...hope global market will be up tomorrow else EMAAR will open GAP down..
I am still holding the stock..as there is not much movement in other stocks. even Arabtec is not moving much? any guess why that?

I am ..100% in the market now...

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

Re: why other stocks not moving much?

Posted on Wed 11 Nov 2009 15:14 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

ITSME wrote:
It has reached 4.57 finally ...what do you think? whre it will take us?...


Yes, if it goes past 4.57 tomorrow, that will be very good and a burst off will happen next week to give you good value for your holdings.

Actually index moved up quickly when EMAAR broke above 4.55 that means some other stocks also moved up.

Regional markets aren't performing like Dubai, so it could be a tribute to great Sheikh Mohammed. Very Happy
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
ITSME
opportunist
opportunist



Joined: 12 Aug 2009
Posts: 42

Re: why other stocks not moving much?

Posted on Wed 11 Nov 2009 17:19 by ITSME
Reply with quote

thajuddeen wrote:
Yes, if it goes past 4.57 tomorrow, that will be very good and a burst off will happen next week to give ...


Thanks Thaj for such nice explaination...as always...

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Prop
speculator
speculator



Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 361

Posted on Wed 11 Nov 2009 22:34 by Prop
Reply with quote

So, what figure we should expect Emaar to reach in near feature? Some of the technicals pros can give a hand, perhaps...

Would it be 4.70 or 5.01, or 5.50?

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

The war into the bubble

Posted on Thu 12 Nov 2009 08:15 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

Prop wrote:
So, what figure we should expect Emaar to reach in near feature? ...


EMAAR bulls have been adapting a slow and steady approach to rise from 4.02 to 4.57.

If they break the bubble the immediate major target will be to break 4.92 resistance.

If the bears are planning a trap inside the bubble, bulls might pull back and book profit in the the range 4.39-4.57. Towards the close that was felt as the bear strategy. Opening interest today will be decisive of the current trend.

Below 4.39 could be a stop loss for traders.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

This time bears trapped bulls

Posted on Thu 12 Nov 2009 19:19 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

thajuddeen wrote:
bulls might pull back and book profit in the the range 4.39-4.57.

Bulls are not giving up yet and will look for oppertunities to trade above 4.50 again, as they stayed and close inside 4.39.

Yet, bears won today forcing bulls to draw a double top (4.57) on the door steps of the bubble and that could be a sign of ...
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

Watch out the resistance above 4.57 this week

Posted on Sat 14 Nov 2009 10:18 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

The resistance above 4.57 could be detrimental. One more failure to break above 4.57 could encourage bears to force the prices down to as low as 3.00 in phases.

We might have a range bound trade to begin the week but towards the end a clear trend to emerge.

By allowing the prices to stay inside 4.39, bears are encouraging bulls to have another try to break 4.57.

On the other hand bulls may pretend a false retreat allowing prices to fall below 4.39 to come forth with an unexpected attack.

TASI performance today will be a decisive factor in the bull/bear strategy after oil took some beating during the week end.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

Is bulls wasteing resources?

Posted on Sun 15 Nov 2009 11:58 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

Bulls are fighting to break 4.57 resistance but they are not receiving much outside support.

They might be expecting some support coming as TASI opens in few minutes.

But bears are already up against the possible fight by setting up a reasonably good resistance at 4.55.

Another failure by bulls will be lost of resources.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

Fight to continue

Posted on Mon 16 Nov 2009 07:40 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

Bulls are not willing to give up though failed an attempt.

They should rather retreat below 4.36 and mobilise resources to have another go at 4.57.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
girish
opportunist
opportunist



Joined: 28 Feb 2008
Posts: 36

Re: Emaar

Posted on Mon 16 Nov 2009 07:55 by girish
Reply with quote

Hi Thaj

I agree with u .The Bulls will def give it one more try and might succeed today with ASIA up above 1% , DOW Futures up,Euro getting stronger.

Today should be volatile as i expect day traders to be active.

The Platform is set..It has TO BE TODAY ... if not then...

All the best

Regards

Girish

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
OnlineTrader
mercenary
mercenary

OnlineTrader avatar

Joined: 10 May 2009
Posts: 601

Posted on Mon 16 Nov 2009 12:08 by OnlineTrader
Reply with quote

Real fight between bears and bulls starting from now on.
I am expecting to see Emaar above 4.61 with high volumes.

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
OnlineTrader
mercenary
mercenary

OnlineTrader avatar

Joined: 10 May 2009
Posts: 601

Emaar Gap 4.57-4.64

Posted on Mon 16 Nov 2009 12:09 by OnlineTrader
Reply with quote

Thanj,
Did you notice Emaar gap between 4.57-4.64?
What if it is filled today?

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

Re: Emaar Gap 4.57-4.64

Posted on Mon 16 Nov 2009 12:30 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

OnlineTrader wrote:
Did you notice Emaar gap between 4.57-4.64?


This is the bubble we have been talking about for the past couple of weeks.

Bulls are trying to break this and losing resources.

If they break this holders may target a price of 4.90 this month.

Failure to break the bubble will have severe consequences when global stock rally stalls.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

Tomorrow we may have a decider

Posted on Mon 16 Nov 2009 21:53 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

We might have a trend decider tomorrow.

The stock has to open gap up to break the bubble.

A failure tomorrow could pave way for a bearish reversal.

A gain of around 2% in S&P500 could be a helping hand.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
OnlineTrader
mercenary
mercenary

OnlineTrader avatar

Joined: 10 May 2009
Posts: 601

Re: Tomorrow we may have a decider

Posted on Mon 16 Nov 2009 23:28 by OnlineTrader
Reply with quote

thajuddeen wrote:
A failure tomorrow could pave way for a bearish reversal.


I do completely agree with you and quite confidence that this gap up will be seen above 4.64.
In fact must probably again this bubble of strengh will not be filled.

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
thajuddeen
capitalist
capitalist



Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE

It will be hard

Posted on Tue 17 Nov 2009 08:08 by thajuddeen
Reply with quote

It will be hard to break the bubble.

US market felt for profit booking in the last hour and that's spreading to Asian markets.

It will be suicidal to try for a bubbled gap up.

This is reminding me of a bubble of strength in ARMX (1.22-130) that was created after it began a rebound from 1.02. After hitting a peak around 1.54, ARMX came upto 1.28 and traded around that for a few sessions before moving up in phases to 1.78 and 1.95. ARMX still holds that bubble. It will be interesting to study that trade pattern though reciprocal.

Market is always right.
_________________
Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
OnlineTrader
mercenary
mercenary

OnlineTrader avatar

Joined: 10 May 2009
Posts: 601

Posted on Tue 17 Nov 2009 10:24 by OnlineTrader
Reply with quote

Thaj was right.
Emaar did not open with a gap up, thanks to Asian markets Very Happy
And even three times attempt to break 4.58 failed.
So now we should expect lower prices , as per support levels 4.50,4.45 and 4.42 are expected.

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
 
 






Sponsored Links 


Back to top
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Dubai stock market Forum Index -> EMAAR Properties All times are GMT + 4 Hours
Goto page 1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11  Next
Page 1 of 11

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum