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| UAE markets in November 2009 will |
| Rise more than 10% |
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12% |
[ 2 ] |
| Rise 5%-10% |
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12% |
[ 2 ] |
| Rise 1%-5% |
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12% |
[ 2 ] |
| be relatively unchanged (between -1% and +1% change) |
|
12% |
[ 2 ] |
| Fall 1%-5% |
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25% |
[ 4 ] |
| Fall 5%-10% |
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12% |
[ 2 ] |
| Fall more than 10% |
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12% |
[ 2 ] |
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| Total Votes : 16 |
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sharewadi
moderator
Joined: 19 Aug 2005
Posts: 13276
Location: up the wadi without a paddle
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Posted on Thu 29 Oct 2009 17:55 by sharewadi
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I know it's still only 29 October 2009 but I thought I'd start the November 2009 marketwatch topic since we've had the last trading day for Abu Dhabi (ADX) Dubai (DFM) today, and this way there's a couple of days available for voting for the change for November.
The ADX was down 3.2% and the DFM 0.30% for October. I forgot to include the ESM index (Emirates Securities Market) at the start but will include it for November.
ADX index closed at 3023.10 points on Thursday 29 October 2009
DFM index closed at 2197.52 points on Thursday 29 October 2009
ESM index closed at 3161.16 points
Voting close date is Sunday, unless you think it's better to leave it open a bit longer? Exact time voting stops might be anytime on Sunday, I've set it to 3 days but don't know whether that's calculated as 72 hours or when server time changes from Saturday to Sunday (which is about midday Sunday UAE time).
See also Dubai Abu Dhabi October 2009 marketwatch topic.
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OnlineTrader
mercenary
Joined: 10 May 2009
Posts: 601
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Posted on Thu 29 Oct 2009 23:07 by OnlineTrader
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Being very optimistic based on few analysis on elliot wave, () I have voted over 10%.  
May be too optimistic prediction.
By the way is dow going to reclaim 10000 today or perhaps tomorrow? |
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Prop
speculator
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 361
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Posted on Thu 29 Oct 2009 23:22 by Prop
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Well done October 
Guys, look at the American markets today and prepare for a breath of fresh air next week. Hopefully the worse of 2009 is already behind us! |
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lala
mercenary
Joined: 11 Dec 2006
Posts: 644
Location: dubai
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Posted on Thu 29 Oct 2009 23:29 by lala
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salam and hi to all
this last few days of uptrend in dow will only give a local boys opportunity to dump there holdings,in november we might see around between 10to15% correction means index around 1980 near,
its just my thoughts and view not trying to scare anybody.
i wish and hope that i m wrong and we all made continue money:)
play safe
lala
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Novice_investor
horse trader
Joined: 17 Oct 2009
Posts: 126
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Posted on Thu 29 Oct 2009 23:55 by Novice_investor
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| lala wrote: |
| this last few days of uptrend in dow will only give a local boys opportunity to dump there holdings,in ... |
Lala...
you think if a correction happens... will it be a long one spread over a month... or might just get over within a week or 10 days (like what we saw in july)...
pls do share your thoughts...
Novice_investor |
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lala
mercenary
Joined: 11 Dec 2006
Posts: 644
Location: dubai
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 00:12 by lala
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| Novice_investor wrote: |
| you think if a correction happens... will it be a long one spread over a month... or might just get over ... |
hi bro
(1)i think u r living in dubai?
(2)u know about property(free hold RE) situation in dubai,Do u think anty new buyers comes from Mars here to buy new property?
(3)emaar a leader of our market?
(4)is emaar capable to show above 2 billions profit in last qtr?,total capital 6 billion don,t forget
(5)in coming year 2010 do u see any big rebound in property?
(6)is emaar succeed in his overseas projects?
(7)do u think big institution will buy emaar a huge qty at price of 5/6 dhms?from my side everything is Big no
6 dhms multiple 6 billions=36 billions means minimum 3.6 billion profit has to show regularly from next year continue,to attract big institution,i don,t think so.
i feel emaar we might see near 3.50 below very soon in month and half time,then again 4.20/4.50 between, zig zag.
i m telling again best time to enter midd of december its my view.
i never wish to made huge money overnight and allhumdolilah never lost huge money overnight.i always believes on future growths and always trying to find out all in outs.
or do daily trades with tight stop loss,dont live on hopes,that tommorow it might recover.
lala
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thajuddeen
capitalist
Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1621
Location: UAE
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 09:31 by thajuddeen
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EMAAR still holding good though it broke couple of strong points (4.50 and 4.35). It still stays away from the bubble of strength at 4.07 and another strong support above 3.80.
Market could be volatile before taking a clear direction.
From EMAAR perspective, if it fails to break 4.92 resistance it would rather retest 3.80 support in November. Another failure to break 4.92 early in the month will put November margins under pressure.
Global cues are key.
I will put bulls on advantage early in the month. 
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Cash King
horse trader
Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 144
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 16:53 by Cash King
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| [edit by mod] Post removed, please see forum guidelines, thanks [/edit] |
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Cash King
horse trader
Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 144
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 19:13 by Cash King
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| [edit by mod] Post removed, please see forum guidelines, thanks [/edit] |
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lala
mercenary
Joined: 11 Dec 2006
Posts: 644
Location: dubai
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 21:26 by lala
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sallam and hi to all
looks like yesterday GDP announcement growth time both geithner and obama was in berkshire office?
play safe
Lala
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its my opinion,money is your,s |
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Prop
speculator
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 361
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 21:47 by Prop
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The Arericas really reached scary lows - bellow summers support, if I remember correctly...
At one point the Q3 results should stop coming out, anyway. But some stocks overdid with the correction... At least we have tested new highs to look up to... |
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joypsam1
profiteer
Joined: 25 Sep 2009
Posts: 63
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 22:07 by joypsam1
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| lala wrote: |
| looks like yesterday GDP announcement growth time both geithner and obama was in berkshire office? |
I can’t understand why we are connecting to Americans - DOW
We are an emerging market backed by oil wealth. Why we should bother about DOW movements.
When US markets corrects LITTLE we will go to the extreme bottom.
When US markets recover VERY HIGH we will recover VERY LITTLE only.
It is really funny.
See US recovered yesterday, but no impact on DFM today due to Friday whereas all ASIANS recovered in good strength.
Today US will go down, and then may be Sunday DFM instead of recovery may go down.
But due to the over CORRECTION of Thursday may be DFM will recover on Sunday in good come back. |
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joypsam1
profiteer
Joined: 25 Sep 2009
Posts: 63
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 22:21 by joypsam1
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| Prop wrote: |
| At one point the Q3 results should stop coming out, anyway. But some stocks overdid with the correction... ... |
See all,
DOW from the peak of 13,000+ went down about 50% and from there recovered over 60% now remaining only 40% to reach the peak again.
Because of that it is mandatory that DOW should go down to have some corrections so that fresh buying will start and slowly by 2010 should reach the peak level.
OUR story is different. We are really struggling since 2005. Never recovered in full. Recovered partially by 2007, then again went back, then again partially recovered by 2008, then again went back heavily like a mad market no comparison to world market. Now in 2009 started to recover again pulling back to support world market.
It is really crazy. It is not a market for investors. It is a market for crazy people. Do not trust this market.
One will loose only here. No gains at all, until DFM change its behavior. |
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Prop
speculator
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 361
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 22:30 by Prop
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A good joke is what I need, after last night's nightmares caused by Lala.
So, take it further and start a petition to DFM to change its behavior |
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Novice_investor
horse trader
Joined: 17 Oct 2009
Posts: 126
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 22:32 by Novice_investor
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Friends...
I think the correction has started in america... they are already over 5% below the recent high of 1098... and might go down another 10%... some novice thoughts...
is there anyone who thinks we are still in a strong uptrend and this is just profit taking... pls let me know...pls speak out... because I dont want to make a mistake in my judgement... and lose out on the probable bull rally which might follow this profit taking... if that what it is...
interesting... morgan stanley was predicting 1100 levels for october recently... inspite of all the flak they face... not bad  |
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Prop
speculator
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 361
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 22:36 by Prop
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| In my humble opinion, this is a correction, but not profit taking. Regarding the size is hard to comment, but some local stocks are 15% down already. |
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joypsam1
profiteer
Joined: 25 Sep 2009
Posts: 63
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 23:03 by joypsam1
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| Prop wrote: |
| In my humble opinion, this is a correction, but not profit taking. Regarding the size is hard to comment, ... |
If you want to link DFM with DOW. Ok do it.
Actually from Wednesday closing DOW down only 0.50%. Thursday 2+% up & Friday 2.50% down. That is just profit taking only. Not deep correction.
So DFM on Sunday will be up 3%, because Thursday it was down 4%. |
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Krazy Guy
profiteer
Joined: 30 Oct 2009
Posts: 64
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Posted on Fri 30 Oct 2009 23:23 by Krazy Guy
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| joypsam1 wrote: |
| Actually from Wednesday closing DOW down only 0.50%. Thursday 2+% up & Friday 2.50% down. That is ... |
I hope this is true. Cause with U.S. markets down(DOW, NASDAQ & S&P) with over 2% today, i expect Saudi down tomorrow and an over reaction of downward trend in UAE markets on Sunday. Hope this doesn't happen, but it doesn't look good at this moment.
I have seen that this market has a very, very short memeory. Therefore, only the last trading day and Saudi counts. |
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lala
mercenary
Joined: 11 Dec 2006
Posts: 644
Location: dubai
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Posted on Sat 31 Oct 2009 00:12 by lala
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Sallam and hi to all
If i was invested 100% in non potential stocks,and prices close to my coast i deff get out at the opening on sunday,if my stocks open just 1-2% below last closing and wait for clear trend WW and localy,bec i m living in realistic world and not watching day dreams.
Groceries i m ready to buy from my own pocket
PS:this just my humble opinion and suggestion to all my brother,s and aunty,s
Money is your,s so final decision should be yours
Play safe
Lala
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Novice_investor
horse trader
Joined: 17 Oct 2009
Posts: 126
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Posted on Sat 31 Oct 2009 00:29 by Novice_investor
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Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoRYl03Rw1_g&pos=3
Friends...
you must have seen the story on bloomberg...
could this become a case of a W shaped recovery and not V shaped...
just your thoughts pls... ...
the reason i bring this up is because... even subprime... 2 years back... was just a story which made a headline on bloomberg on a casual day...
Novice_investor |
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fayesloan
horse trader
Joined: 21 Aug 2008
Posts: 185
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Posted on Sat 31 Oct 2009 00:47 by fayesloan
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A few years ago about 10 to 35% of the market players knew what subprime was going to do for years before the loans collapsed and initiated a credit crisis. Even after the credit crisis started in August 2007 the market kept going up for a few more months...
Commercial real estate is nothing new to the market.
I would say most smart people know it is going to explode.
Novice_investor, please, you and others, do not take this personally, but reading headlines is not a stock market strategy. This market may collapse next week again, like last year, or it may go up another 200% the next two years.
It is not a secret that the global economy is still sick. But markets will suck you in because it is a great place to grab my and your money.
A top ten rule in any market is: No one has a crystal ball, so coming here to expect soothing, gentle words, and to see others "hoping" the market will go up, is not a strategy.
Everybody please say this before you go to bed:
No one has a crystal ball.
Thank you lala for coming back and injecting some realism here.
Last edited by fayesloan on Sat 31 Oct 2009 00:58; edited 1 time in total |
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fayesloan
horse trader
Joined: 21 Aug 2008
Posts: 185
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Posted on Sat 31 Oct 2009 00:55 by fayesloan
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In addition to advice above for novice_investor, this advice goes to joypsam who wrote:
| joypsam1 wrote: |
| So DFM on Sunday will be up 3%, because Thursday it was down 4%. |
joypsam, out of love for you, I mean this, after reading what you wrote about DFM and DOW earlier:
Please just exit the markets and save your money and yourself!
It is not a place for you, and many others posting here. If you want to learn how to trade properly, then use a thousand dollars and trade forex. The principles of trading can be learned, and they are all about your relationship to your self and your money, by trading forex. The stock market will be a very expensive lesson.
And I disagree with prop, of course that so-called big boys can "save" the market in any way.
The "big boys" lose money just like the rest of us. I know that from my professional experience. Also I have a nice story in my comments on the AABAR post about that.
I see serious problems here. If you want to invest, then choose what you believe are good fundamentally sound companies and hold for a long time.
But if you are in the market to trade earnings and announcements and to hope the market goes up, then get out even at a loss.
We have already seen people lose money in a tremendous bull run since February in the UAE. |
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fayesloan
horse trader
Joined: 21 Aug 2008
Posts: 185
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Posted on Sat 31 Oct 2009 01:04 by fayesloan
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| Krazy Guy wrote: |
| I have seen that this market has a very, very short memeory |
Another fact of markets is that "investors" have very short memories.
Don't worry about what the market does, because with proper trade management you can make money without trying to figure out the direction, short or long term.
Don't worry about the market's memory. Worry about you own.
How many times will you forget lessons learned before beginning to make money. The market is always an expensive lesson.
Nowadays I know that there are investors borrowing money to "invest" in stocks everywhere around the world.
Leverage again.
Another rule is that people always want to hear positive things about companies, stocks, and the stock market. They want to hear that it is the place of dreams. If you are a trader, it might as well be a casino.
People, I am not confident if the trend has reversed.
But I am definitely confident 8 out of 10 will lose money in the stock market if they have less than 3 years experience. |
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Novice_investor
horse trader
Joined: 17 Oct 2009
Posts: 126
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Posted on Sat 31 Oct 2009 01:20 by Novice_investor
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| fayesloan wrote: |
| People, I am not confident if the trend has reversed. ... |
Fayesloan...
I sense a shift in your view...
from...
"I am confident that we are in a strong uptrend... to
I am not confident if the trend has reversed..."
If you could state more clearly - your view on the market now. i know no-one has the crystal ball... but everyone one has a view... right or wrong...
also... with all due respect...my objective of bringing forth the W vs V shaped debate was not to create panic or base trading strategies out of it... but simply to know the how trader & investors here are looking at markets... their macro views...
Novice_investor |
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Prop
speculator
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 361
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Posted on Sat 31 Oct 2009 08:25 by Prop
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My crystal ball , that is purple with bubbles, advised differently and made me write about 10 days ago (20 October) the following:
| Prop wrote: |
| Now, about the incredible volatility of the markets: I am 100 % invested, but lately feel scared and think to sell 100% as soon as possible with the smallest possible losses and than wait. The volatility of the last 10 days is no good, in my humble opinion. Maybe there is a chance to make few fills still, but is becoming too risky for me... |
Commercial Real Estate it happens to be my speciality and I can tell that it has bottomed down during the summer and now the data is coming out positive over the last 4 quarters. If any one needs the detailed reports etc. , please PM.
My crystal ball today morning suggested that some posters, from the forum where I write, should take Salsa classes and lighten their heads |
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