To DU or not to DU ?

[manoy]

[sam111sam]

Nice report


Profit forecast per share for 2009 is 6 Fils, 2010 is 12 Fils, and for 2011 about 22 Fils
Also look at total debt also

http://www.argaam.com/Common/Handlers/AttachmentDownload.ashx?referer=/portal&fileName=49f940e4-9257-4e13-bc07-e77a655ff30b.pdf&folder=%5cArticleAttachments%5c

[sharewadi]

[sam111sam]

Just tried it again copy and past from the link I posted ...it worked..may be the server was busy or down

EFG Hermes 08 November 2009:

• New Forecasts: We update our forecasts for du post the 3Q2009 results. The main changes are: i) an increase in subscriber additions for both the market as a whole, and for du, ii) a reduction in the EBITDA margin, as we no longer believe that du will achieve margins in excess of 40% in the medium term, iii) provisioning for royalty fees of 50% of net profit rather than 35%, and iv) higher capex forecasts in light of new management guidance regarding planned infrastructure investment. •Lowering our Fair Value Estimate by 18%: Our revised DCF-based model yields an equity value for du of AED19.9 billion, down 18% from our previous estimate. This implies a long term fair value (LTFV) of AED4.98 per share, indicating a potential upside of 34.5%. We therefore maintain our ST Accumulate / LT Buy recommendation. Potential catalysts include dividend distribution, allowing foreign institutional investors to hold the stock or a decrease in royalty fees. •3Q2009 Results, Good but not Spectacular: The company reported 3Q2009 total revenue of AED1,333 million, a modest Q-o-Q increase and slightly above our forecasts. In general, the third quarter is a slow one for GCC operators due to the summer slowdown, as a large segment of the population leaves on vacation. Mobile revenue came in at AED941 million (+6.7% Q-o-Q and +28.9% Y-o-Y), 6% ahead of our estimate on better subscriber additions. Fixed-line and other revenue, however, missed our estimates by 7%, at AED393 million (-8.4% Q-o-Q, +19.1% Y-o-Y).