ARAMEX was always going to have a rebound as it is not connected to the Dubai World fallout
Since most of the market is connected to real estate I don’t see Aramex as a particularly good barometer for the market (though I'm sure thajuddeen would beg to differ )
Aramex has got its own problems with falling revenue (down 10% year on year). Without revenue growth I don’t see much point in having Aramex in the portfolio.
EFG-Hermes recently (15th Nov) fixed Aramex’s long-term fair value at AED 1.71. It therefore placed a “Neutral” recommendation on the stock … right now that seems fair!
though I'm sure thajuddeen would beg to differ ...
I would differ for the sake of it.
Infact, this time I don't have to dig much to put a deffering note rather than highlighting your own point.
ixtira wrote:
ARAMEX was always going to have a rebound as it is not connected to the Dubai World fallout...
This is the point, the limit of rebound on a unconnected scrip could be a maximum you may expect on the rebound. That way you might measure the market sentiment of the issue.
EFG-Hermes' 1.71:My own estimation was it to peak below 2.00 and the stock took a bearish reversal from 1.95 to hit as low as 1.43. Falling below 1.39 could challenge a bubble of strength between 1.22 and 1.28. Always a buy on the dip to trade with 1.39 as stop loss.
Volatile: Nov. from 1.50 to 1.83 = 22% Dec. already 25%
Resilient: Support = 1.39
During recession revenue growth is an extraordinary event. Still ARMX achieved profit growth by cutting expenses judiciously. That's showing the strength of management which is a rarity in this part of the world.
I woun't say a great stock but due to the above reasons one to add in your trading portfolio. Apart from real estate and banking stocks, we have very few stocks to add in the portfolio, hence ARMX.
As a measure of my ARMX view, if ARMX falling below 1.39 market could be extremely bearish.
Let's see how the market take this view in the time ahead. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
As a measure of my ARMX view, if ARMX falling below 1.39 market could be extremely bearish
ARMX has the worst close in months at its limit down (1.46).
But this stock is clearly outperforming DFMGI. DFMGI is approaching 52W low while ARMX 52W low is still far at 0.76.
In case ARMX breaks below 1.39 focus will be the bubble of strength ( 1.22-1.28 ). _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
ARMX has the worst close in months at its limit down (1.46).
Yet another bearish signal by the market. One of the strongest UAE performers this year is about to give up and break down, it seems.
Only a very strong rebound (over 15% gain) in the next two weeks will negate my view on Aramex. People with experience would do well to review this stock's history of notorious volatility. Vol has been down and reduced for this stock this year as it has chugged upwards nicely for most of 2009. If the trend has changed for Aramex, and I think it has, then you can expect several limit downs while others have stabilised. It is a stock that moves to its own beat in the market.
Use any positive market action to exit your positions.
Why? Because I would bet the trend has reversed and so lower prices are likely over the next few quarters.
If the trend has changed for Aramex, and I think it has, then you can expect several limit downs while others have stabilised....
I don't think it necessay to have several limit down while DFMGI stabilises. Normally this stock will outperform DFMGI for its last couple of quarters weren't bad at all. In fact there is a market practice ARMX and AGTHIA complete a correction with heavy losses before the market rebound.
In case it break below 1.39
watch out for:
1.22-1.28
and
1.02
I'm afraid there will be hedging on this stock for it has no real estate exposure.
I will be happy to shift in case a huge break down in this stock. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
In fact there is a market practice ARMX and AGTHIA complete a correction with heavy losses before the market rebound....
Mind that's a lesson being with the market so closely.
ARMX was scooped near the line yesterday and rolled slowly to near the sideline this morning before an athletic stick work saved the day putting the ball back into play.
ARMX is slightly overpriced compared to DFMGI and might break below 1.39 in case DFMGI falls below 1450.
I woun't mind it falling below 1.39 and breaking the bubble (1.22-128) and falling in the range (0.95 - 1.05).
I will find value in EMAAR switching from ARAMEX in the short run. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
ARAMEX breaking 1.91 will be extremly bullish condition in DFMGI that might help DFMGI breaking 2000 mark easily.
With ARAMEX going limit down from around 1.88 might mean the market require consolidation to try and break above DFMGI 2000 again. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
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