Why ARMX is finding a resistance at 1.64 after couple of big trades last week?
ARMX has developed a negative divergence and is finding hard to break above 1.64. ARMX might find hard to keep the bubble of strength between 1.22 and 1.28 when DFMGI hits a bearish reversal.
ARMX didn't hit a lower low than June low while most other stocks in UAE markets hit a lower low in July.
ARMX low was in end June (1.02) and peaked end July ( 1.78 ). If ARMX is not bouncing back, we may assume the market is peaking, if not peaked.
This is, rather , a time span theory.
_________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
I like the theory ... but there is an alternative view.
ARMX at a price of 1.6 has a PE Ratio of 14 which is alot more expensive that other stocks in the Transporation category (AirArabia at PE 9 for example). Abnormally high PE ratio should put a downward pressure on the stock. The boost they had at the end of July can be put down to a bit of overhype from the strong Q2 results.
The stock has not broke my possible reversible low range (1.48-1.54) despite huge drop in DFMGI.
We may have a retest tomorrow and if it passes that we may have a rebound in ARMX and hence the market. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
ARMX increased by 2.6% while the market averaged 2.73%, which would make ARMX a lagger not a leader.
True still ARMX recovered what it lost yesterday and hit a higher high, so in that way it's still better than EMAAR, ARTC, DFM etc.
ARMX is, of course, not a leader but the there is a hype in the stock due to:
1. Increasing foreign ownership. (There was a similar hype with SOROUH when it decreased the foreign ownership limit and at that time it even outperfomed ALDAR. One might doubt the contrary point, the answer is at that time foreigners were selling and now foreigners are buying. This is my secret point of interest in the stock ).
2. Reasonably good Q2 result
The stock found good support around 1.50 than the resistance at 1.64.
The stock has completed a correction of 15% from 1.78 to 1.51. Today the stock won a dual at 1.57 that might help it break above 1.64 next week.
I was using ARMX to check if market is reversing because no other stock in UAE market was trading below 10% of its recent HIGH. In fact, ARMX has one of the best % increase (75%) from June LOW (1.02) to July HIGH ( 1.78 ).
The stock has turned out to be one of the leading volatile stock for swing trading. ARMX recorded the best volatile trade range in July when it traded through 1.53 - 1.78 on 29-07-2009. I expect swing traders entering the stock next week to help it break 1.64. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
Thanks to ixtira who helped to explore more on ARMX.
A study of recent waves on ARMX shows interesting facts.
First : 1.02 - 1.52 = 50 fils
Second: 1.28 - 1.78 = 50 fils
Third: 1.51 - = 50 fils
Corrections:
First : 1.52 - 1.28 = 24 fils
Second: 1.78 - 1.51 = 27 fils
Third: - = fils
Well, since the second correction was more severe than the first one, we may expect the stock will climb lesser height. Literally speaking ARMX might not be able to break 2.00. So I will put ARMX to peak at 1.88 in this wave, if only it takes place.
I had allowed 24-30 fills correction from 1.78, so far it just fell in the middle.
We never know, market is always right and we have to follow it. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
Is Aramex going to break 1.64 today?
An accumulation at 1.6 to 1.62 happened with a volume of 8.5 m shares only within 20 minutes.
It is really big volume.
ARMX is trying to push the prices to profit booking range 1.68-1.71.
Thanks for comment.
I have entered at 1.62 two times.
I also thnk about 1.67 - 1.68 as same but have also feeling that this time it will break above 1.7 considering volumes up to now and bid/offer individual rates.
By the way, I remember you have saved huge traded voulmes at 1.64-1.63, how much was that? It may help to understand trend more.
It is said that a strong share in a weak market will be unerperformed, that is what happening to Aramex.
I closed my position at 1.64 but for sure will enter again at a suitable price when market is settled.
So I will put ARMX to peak at 1.88 in this wave, if only it takes place. ...
I read elsewhere in this forum CITIBANK gave it a buy recommendation with 1.85 target, very close to my target.
The stock is still to close above 1.66. Interestingly the highest close sofar is 1.66 even when it hit 1.78. So once it close above 1.66 expect the climb. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
1.85 would imply a PE Ratio of >15 which is very expensive.
ARMX profit is comming from bottom line (revenue in Q2 was down 10%) these are not conditions which are normally consistent with a stock maintaining an abnormally high PE Ratio.
If the stock is not moving higher from here, it may fall back to 1.46 then I may fall back on it. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
1.61 as SMA has to crossed for confirmation of new up wave.
As expected after rebound from lower boolinger bond, share price struggling with 1.61 as mentioned above.
I see an accumulation at 1.61 (up to now at 11:15 over than 3.4 m shares traded at 1.61) which is in fact very healthy for upward trend.
Slod my Aramex shares at 1.60-1.61 as it showed weakness to pass 1.61 strongly.
May be it does again today, but for me to keep few fills profit in weekend was much better option.
... Literally speaking ARMX might not be able to break 2.00...
It's time to watch this stock again.
Well as per the theory the stock didn't break above 2.00.
Today stock is doing a good volume, so far the best volume in the market at first sight.
The major burst off on the stock was when it broke 1.39 after a consolidation above a bubble of strength 1.22-1.28. There is a tussle on the stock as it closes near 1.39.
I reiterate that this is one of the stock that you should add to your portfolio, if you're investing in DFM.
Wait till next week to see if it breaks the bubble. If it fails to break the bubble, this stock could burst off on the DFMGI reversal.
One thing for sure, this stock is going to outperform DFMGI at some point of time in December. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
ARMX has done 25% rebound from 1.43 to 1.78. Unless ARMX hitting above 1.78, I woun't expect most other stocks doing more than 25% from their respective bottom, whatsoever. On that measure EMAAR's rebound may fall short of 3.85 without any positive news.
Evenif you don't hold keep a watch on it. _________________ Take your own decision; and you decide your destiny
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= 50 fils
Hopefully catch the next bus. 
