unfortunately i cannot give my sources for the above info.
Don't be so sure . No one knows !
I read a bit about the selection process on the net.
The selection process is not a decision of a small committee that can be influenced like FIFA. It is based on simple open votes form the 135 country reps. Countries reps will go through the final set of presentations from each of the candidate cities by late Oct, the voting date was in
Unlike most events, the decision is NOT based on the city organizational abilities, and infrastructure readiness. But it is more of how will this event help to transform this city.
Dubai's Great infrastructure as compared to the other competing cities , may not help that much here...It may actually work against. There are other factors like contribution of the city to the world (environmental, technology,..)
The Russians are doing a good PR job all over the internet now. I think the voting may show a very close race between the 2 Cities. Thailand is out and Izmir has less chances after the recent unrest in Turkey.
My personal assessment is 60% chance,
Read the Expo202, on Wikipedia, it has very nice links
Anyway, the rule of thumb works most of the time
"Buy on the rumor and Sell on the news"
unfortunately i cannot give my sources for the above info.
Then it's a meaningless comment, and your claim lowers the value of anything else you have posted or will post.
Bureau International des Expositions FAQs:
How does the BIE choose an application/a city/a country over another?
After having deposited their official request at the BIE by the intermediary of their governments, the candidates for organising an Exhibition are subject to an enquiry mission. The report of the enquiry mission is presented at the General Assembly, which, by a secret vote (each member-state has one vote) chooses a country to grant a date of organising an Expo.
The Member-States reunited in the General Assembly freely decide to grant or not the organisation of an Expo to a country, based on the feasibility of the project as assessed in the report of the enquiry mission.
So unless you know how each member is going to decide in the secret vote, you cannot be 100% sure.
There are 167 member states of the BIE. Can you list 84 countries for which it is public knowledge that they will definitely vote for Dubai? Or do you have private knowledge of their voting decisions in advance?
Not sure I've understood the voting process to be honest but I think that's how it works. _________________ Please read forum posting guidelines, especially if you have been deactivated.
Bumping this to remind members there's a dedicated topic about the 2020 Expo host city decision and Dubai coming up this month. There are quite a few Expo 2020 posts being added randomly to other topics. Fair enough since it is a current news topic in the run up to the decision. But it's easier to review past comments if they're mostly in one topic. _________________ Please read forum posting guidelines, especially if you have been deactivated.
Hi all - was just wondering what do you guys think of the impact of EXPO 2020 bid, whether Dubai wins the bid or not.
I am tried to do research on the chances and it seems no one can know as the number of people who vote is considerably high. And as there is a chance to win the bid (hopefully!), there is a probability that Dubai loses the bid to Expo.
5 months or so when the UAE and Qatar markets got upgraded, people here were so optimistic about the whole thing expecting 2 days of limit ups - but the reaction was rather just fine and people rationalized that that the upgrade is already factored in. So comparing Expo and MSCI impacts (though different events), we might have the market open the day after the announcement of the win with barely any increase and people would immediately say prices are already adjusted for that event win.
On the flip side, if Dubai loses the bid, things might go wrong and we might see reds / limit downs as the markets have already climbed higher and higher during the year and people are waiting for a trigger (remember syria situation in September?).
I am just confused and need to hear other people to share their thoughts if possible.
After all, I hope Dubai wins the Expo! fingers crossed!
5 months or so when the UAE and Qatar markets got upgraded, people here were so optimistic about the ...
Look it's 2020 means 6 years after the announcement, I personally think we will not get it but I hope and wish so, the market went up 100% so it can't go 200% this year and if we get 2020 the impact will not only be for the market it will reflect other people who works in other business that didn't have chance to make money in the market, so if you are inviting for 2020 wait 6 years and you will get 100% on the current prices, so if we hopefully get it, I will wait the market to correct atleast 50% of its gain (look at the 52week high and the 52 week low) scary for me to even think that I can make 10%
Congrats to Dubai and to all Shareholders in DFM...!
My guess is a limit up today (for 'blue chips') and cooling down after weekend when investor wake up and realize that it is for 2020 Expo not 2014... Life should be back to normal after that until the next good new..
in all the posts, i had seen MSCI support from various others, but expo was somthing that you kept clingging ...
Thanks for the kind words.
I think the major catalyst for the market are over for 2013.
In 2014 I have 4 focus points:
1) Rally - Final Results & Pay out- 1Q 14
2) Rally by Foreign Investors from MSCI before or after May 2014- 2Q 14
3) Rally by Foreign Investors from S&P before or after Sep 2014- 3Q 14
4) Significant Debt payment by Dubai Inc all over the year 2014
I expect that Blue Chip companies of UAE will be double in price in 2014.
So focus more on Blue chips and avoid speculative scripts.
I still recall the Nov 26,2009 when DP world was in hot water and DFM falls like house of cards.
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